Sunday, May 31, 2009

PENANTI BY-ELECTIONS – WIN FOR PR

It is a 5 win for Pakatan Rakyat (PR), 1 win for Barisan National (BN), and another by-election at Manek Urai, Kelantan scheduled this July 14th 2009; an astonishing 7 by-elections since the March 8, 2008 General Elections.

Despite the low voters turnout of only 46% at the Penanti by-election, PR candidate Dr. Mansor Othman garnered 6,052 votes, securing a majority of 5,558, against his nearest rival Independent Nai Khan who secured 494 votes. All three Independent cadidates lost their deposits. The majority votes garnered by Dr. Mansor, though less compared to the 2008 elections, reflects the unflinching support for the PR in Penanti.

I reckoned that even if the BN had fielded a candidate, there was every possibility of the candidate losing the by-election. This should be a worring trend for the BN, and coupled with the losing streak in all previously held by-elections, only a miracle could overturn the results in favour of the BN in the next General Elections. The BN, after their poor outing in the 2008 General Elections had vowed for drastic changes within the party, but the results of the Penanti by-elections (although BN did not field a candidate) does not seemed to have changed the voters perception towards PR.

In the 2008 General Elections, the Penanti PR candidate Muhamed Fairus Khairuddin secured 7,346 votes, against his BN rival Datuk Abd. Jalil Majid who secured 5,127 votes. The voter turnout was 82% of a total voters population of 17,000 voters.

With the up-coming Manek Urai by-elections in July, the BN will have another opportunity at proving that their popularity and influence has not waned in Kelantan. My bet is that PR, through its PAS candidate will have a 60-40 chance of winning the by-elections. What then would be your bet?


CRUSADE AGAINST CORRUPTION

2 comments:

komando said...

DEAR DATO'

EVEN IF THE CANDIDATE IS A MONKEY CLIMBING COCONUT TREES IN KELANTAN, HE WILL WIN HANDS DOWN! FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING !

THE UMNO AND BN IN THIS COUNTRY IS "HIS STORY" YES IT WAS MEANT TO BE SPELT THAT WAY, NOT A TYPING ERROR!

THEY WROTE THE STORY AND THEY CHANGED THE STORY..NOW IT IS THE END OF THE STORY....NO STORIES GOES ON FOREVER! NO ACTORS LIVE FOREVER....ALL WILL DIE...UMNO IS ON THE DEATH BED... CCU...LIVING ON LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM....WAIT FOR THE BEEP...... THE LONG ONE........! BINGO !

mohamad said...

I like Dato' Arshad's "crystal ball" prediction of the coming Manek Urai by-election.

If we were to go by a conventional and traditinal assessment, it would be an easy bet and we all will win. In Kelantan, the least expected can happen as it has happened before.

You have to be on the ground and have a hands on with Kelantan politics. I have spent many years in Kelantan since the sixtees and I still have many of families staying there. Some are strong UMNO members and supporters while many are PAS members and strong supporters. They have tried very hard to get me to join their side but I refused and I still remain their friend and they too are all my friends. You can imagine if I were to join either side!

Traditionally, most of our family members had been UMNO supporters since the fiftiees. Those were the days when UMNO and its members were the better side. Though we had PAS memberlike Dato Asri Muda who was a highly respected PAS leader, majority support went to UMNO due to its credible leaders then.

The scenerio to-day does not change very much as far as political parties in Kelantan are concerned. UMNO and PAS are two dominent parties which have been traditional rivals since the early days.

The leadership means a lot in Kelantan politics. The "Nik Aziz" approach, (humble, Islamic prominence and simple human being) wins the kelantan people's heart.
The arrogant, flamboyant, aggressive and "kurang ajar" attitude will have no place on Kelantan soil!

I know YAB Nik Aziz and many top PAS memebers. I also know and am close to Dato' Pa, Awang Adik, Anuar Musa and YM Tenku Razaleigh.
They all have a common goal, that is, to make Kelantan a developed and prosperous state, but their approaches are different. Nik Aziz, with his Islamic leadership and humble strength, will be difficult to oust. Anuar Musa, a very aggresive politician will get the support of few but will have a tough time to get the respect of the majoiry. I know Dato' Pa, a well educated Kelantanese, humble, down-to-earth and has the right approach to put UMNO back to glory.

However, Dato' Pa will have an uphill battle because of the existing sick perception of UMNO for having too many questionable and corrupted leaders at all levels. UMNO leaders, from the PM and his wife, the DPM and his wife, the Cabinet Ministers, Ketua Perhubungan Negeri and Ketua Bahagian MUST return to a 'humble land caring Melayu" to get the respect and support of Kelantanese.

Back to Manik Urai... if Ku Li had secured commendable margin of victory, it would be reasonable to estimate the result of the incoming by-election could go either way. If UMNO picks a clean, credible and "people's candidate", under Dato' Pa's leadership, it would not give PAS an easy victory.

Let us all watch.