UMNO's GUESSING GAME

And the UMNO Supreme Council (aka UMNO not so supreme in the words of Tun Mahathir) has finally decided to defer the UMNO General Assembly to March 2009 (or thereabout), from its original December 2008 date. But what is so amazing is that the decision was made by two people i.e. Pak Lah and Najib after the two had met, prior to the Supreme Council meeting. If this report is true, the decision therefore cannot be said to be a council's decision, but rather of Pak Lah and Najib. In other words, the decision of the two reigns supreme over others in the council. This is democracy ala UMNO.

Amazingly too, Pak Lah has not decided on whether he will contest for the UMNO Presidency post in March 2009, and preferred to play a guessing game. This has been Pak Lah's trademark, and I suppose he seriously need a bit of time, supposedly to consult his ahli nujum (sooth sayers). As Tun Mahathir had remarked in his blog, his ahli nujum may be just three people i.e. son Kamarudin, SIL Khairy, and the latest being wife Jeane Danker. And little wonder, Pak Lah has appointed the discarded Perlis MB, Sahidan Kassim as the advisor of NCER; the best brain among the people of Perlis. Let us see whether Sahidan Kassim's has the advisory skills to forge ahead the NCER.

Now, should Pak Lah suddenly awakens, and decides to throw his challenge for the UMNO Presidency, and by the grace of God, he wins the challenge. What then will be his options in UMNO? My guess are as follows:

Option 1. Decides to continue as PM, since traditionally, winning the Presidency means securing the post of PM as well.
Option 2. Decides to relinquish the post of PM, and to handover the PM's post to Najib, while still retaining the Presidency of UMNO.
Option 3. Decides to relinquish completely the Presidency.

Of the three options, I can easily discard option 3, because Pak Lah will not want to disappoint his supporters who had voted him in. UMNO is sure to disintegrate sooner should Pak Lah adopts this option, and Najib's reign as PM will be made difficult by the supporters of Pak Lah.

Should Pak Lah adopts option 2, Najib's position as PM will be kept in a balance. Neither will he be assured of support from UMNO members. as well as from members of his cabinet. There will always be the possibility of Pak Lah coming back to demand the post of PM, which is rightly his, should he finds that Najib is a 'non performer'.

This leaves option 1, and in all probability, Pak Lah will want to retain his post of PM. This leaves Najib out, and this can also be the end of Najib's political career.

The guessing game that Pak Lah has thrown open to all must be viewed seriously, and Najib's supporters must be concern to ensure the political survival of the latter. Time is no longer in Najib's favour, and he has to win at all costs. Compromising to Pak Lah's political overtures must cease. And the only way he can be assured of a win is to weaken the support for Pak Lah, and to gain the unwavering support from his other political aspirants within UMNO, namely that of Muhyiddin Yassin, Rais Yatim, Aziz Samsuddin, Shafie Afdal to name a few, and lastly, UMNO Youth led by cousin Hishamuddin Hussein.

Indeed,the entire episode that surrounds UMNO today is a guessing game, a game where only the fittest will survive. Whether UMNO will come out stronger or wither after March 2009, is also a guessing game for us.....the Malays.