Tuesday, October 11, 2011


I received an email (the entire text is appended below) from a dear friend whose comments on the 2012 Budget is worth a thought. Please take time to read, and I am sure you too have a comment or two on the recently announced Budget 2012.


Being only a retired military officer, I may be blind to the economic facts, but certainly not stupid to swallow a pack of untruths (I do not like to use the word lies).

Firstly, a bunch of ‘one offs’ handouts that mainly makes the civil servants, soldiers, policemen, pensioners happy. Then some populist moves across the board to give everyone hope.

Now, I wonder and ask some searching questions:

1. QUESTION - IS THERE A LONG TERM INVESTMENT BEYOND 2012 IN THE BUDGET? ANSWER -Nyet, Nadai, Nien, Bo liau, Tadak, Yillai!!!. So, is it wrong for me to assume that the whole idea is to con the people onto an election victory and then do the fire fighting/damage control etc. later? How often have you heard recently from the government departments, “Allocation ada, tapi duit belum terima”. Here, they were playing a mahjong game, with the skill of a Tai Chi exponent. It gets us by, believe me, but it doesn’t solve the problem.

2. QUESTION - HOW CAN JIBBY CONFIDENTLY PREDICT A 5 TO 6% GDP GROWTH IN 2012 TO ‘AFFORD’ THE EXPENDITURE, WHEN THE WORLD IS ON THE BRINK OF AN IMPENDING DOUBLE DIP RECESSION? ANSWER - I guess 4 to 4.4% would be more realistic at the most. Now, here lies the biggest failure. There is no contingency whatsoever if the recession kicks in. Remember, the failure to plan is planning a failure.

3. QUESTION - HOW IS THE DEFICIT GAP GOING TO CLOSE? ANSWER - There is no clear cut plans on prudent spending against added revenue collection. The Capital Gain Tax increase is a drop in the ocean. More money can be collected from stamp duties due to the volume of transaction; from one area of unproductiveness to another area of unproductiveness. Budget deficits translate into debts. For 2010, it is estimated to be RM20.5 billion – an increase of nearly 60%. Now, let’s do the math – take interest rate at 5%, RM12.8 billion debt service charges in 2008 would make federal government debt at RM256 billion. Now the debt service charges at RM20.5 billion, the federal government’s debt is projected at RM410 billion. This is an increase of RM154 billion from 2008 to 2012, an average increase of RM38.5 billion per year. That would now be the nation’s annual actual deficit. Yes, I have tears in my eyes too, because my children will have to pay for it.

4. QUESTION – WHERE IS JIBBY GOING TO GET THE MONEY? ANSWER - Yes, from us my friends; the long suffering 1.7 million tax payers. The long awaited GST will be shoved in after the election. Mark my words. The EPF and other government-linked funds will be asked to do ‘national service’ by investing in debt papers issued by the government. Again, a case of using the peoples’ money to bail out a financially weak government.

So, in essence I say, look at the forest my dear friends and now tell me how they are ruining my beloved Malaysia. Call me a pessimist, non believer, not a risk taker etc., but I ask –CAN YOU RUN A COUNTRY ON BORROWED TIME? The answer is YES, if you are a leader living on borrowed time.

May God bless us all.



bruno said...

Dato,the writer cannot be more correct.With the world going into deep recession,sometime next year or so,where is Jibby going to get the money to fund his Santa Claus election budget.It is an accepted fact of life by our politicians, that they can spend and buy their way out of anything.But of course,with the people's money.

Now let us get down to the facts.Or what is happening in the real world.First we know that the PIGGS nations are in serious deep financial troubles.And these PIGGS nations are the ones who are about to fall off the cliffs.These nations are the ones who are on the brink of debt defaults.In other they are probable potential bankrupt nations.

And these PIGGS nations are the ones who cannot hide their problems anymore.Because they have no more money to service their debts.There are more nations in the EU and the rest of the world to follow.And this European Financial Crisis(EFC) will be many more times severe that our Asian Financial Crisis(AFC).This crisis will be felt over the world.

Now we have Germany and France,the two financially better off nations in the EU,coming out to say that they will back another bailout package.The markets like the Santa Claus news and rallied big time.Let us say that they will get another rescue package.But it will just have a delayed effect.Then what next,maybe a few months down the road.Are they going to keep on bailing out these failed nations.

Eventually,their people are going to protest and these politicians will backtrack.Then in the near future,when the bailout money stops flowing in,then we will be seeing nations defaulting on their debts,one after another.Then the real effects and pain will be felt the world over.

When the EFC gets into full swing,the world will fall into a deep reccession if not a depression.We will be lucky if a handful of nations will have a GDP in the black.But definitely not an export dependent nation like Malaysia.If Malaysia gets a GDP in the red and a bigger then expected budget deficit,then how is Najib going to get the money to fund hid "goodies" budget.

Frankie said...


The contents of your friend's email are absolutely correct. Najib is pulling wool over the public's eyes by buying over the civil servants and pensioners with little candies. Little do the "lucky" civil servants and pensioners know that they have to cough back out the little candies once the election is over in the form of higher cost of living, GST, etc, because there's no way Najib and his government can sustain giving out the little candies. This country is heading in the same direction as Greece and the civil servants will be the ones who will bear the brunt of their folly for accepting the little candies.

Arunzab said...

I think Najib is going the way of Gen.Custer and we all know what happened to Custer at the battle of Little Bighorn.


Ya May God Bless Us

Kamal Sanusi said...

Salam Dato'

The more I read on analysis of Budget 2012, the more questions arises in which most of analysts would say:

"Santa Claus has given an early x'mas present to Malaysian towards ensuring their seats in forthcoming GE"

With one-off payment which would able to cover the economic pressure for a month, the balance of 11 months might trigger an alarm to them upon implementation of GST, possibility of rationalization of subsidies and increase of prices of many things namely food.

However, when all medias being controlled by those suckers, we are presented by flowery comments from people who want to be a candidates and mostly forget-FOOL Malaysians.

Another question is....

Where is the report card on achievement of previous budget?


I was surprise to hear from an Indonesian caddy that her grand mother is receiving monthly pension from her husband's service as a fighter for Independence. Here, ex home guards, constabulary and auxiliary police will get one-off payment of gratitude after so many yearsThat was after Sdr Mat Sabu saga on Mat Indra!

cskok8 said...

This is just the estimate for spending next year. You bet there will be supplementary budgets for expenditures not planned for (especially when there are buy-elections). The income is also expected only and is most likely over-optimistic. So we only know how is the country's financial situation from the Economic & Auditor-General's report which is normally released on the same day as the Budget announcement (in this case for 2010). Now you don't supposed they have been OSAed!

Mej. A R Ramachandran (Retired) said...

The House of Commons starts its proceedings with a prayer. The chaplain looks at the assembled members with their varied intelligence and then prays for the country. - --Lord Denning of Whitechurch

maurice said...

Maurice tak berani nak komen hal-hal ekonomi takut diketawakan orang.

Tapi tak salah Kerajaan nak tolong golongan rakyat yang susah termasuk askar-askar yang sedang berkhidmat dan yang sudah bersara.

Kos sara hidup yang kian meningkat dari hari ke hari adalah buatan golongan 'business people' yang tidak mahu memberi kerjasama untuk mengawal kos barang-barang keperluan harian/produk mereka.

Saya rasa dalam keadaan sedemikian wajar sangat Kerajaan memberi bantuan kepada mereka yang memerlukan bantuan.Kita kelas pekerja (working class) seharusnya berterima kasih kepada Kerajaan.

Lalok said...

buatlawak la maurice ni...jangan salahkan org business...salahkan polisi kerajaan yg memberi unsur2 perlindugan kpd industri automotif negara sehingga kereta yg sangat murah di luar negara menjadi spt harga berlian di malaysia. org2 business tu cuma ikut polisi tu aja. kalau harga automotif malaysia setanding dgn US dan Europe, saya pasti semua barangan lain akan ikut turun harga, secara tak langsung kos hidup juga akan turun mendadak. High income nation bukan bermakna gaji besar dan harga barangan melambung2. Tapi gaji kecik yg mempunyai nilai yg besar dengan harga barangan yg murah juga boleh diiktiraf sbg high income nation.

Malaysian said...

The government can promise a lot of benefit to the people. Nevertheless, if you don't control the spending the people will suffer sooner or later. We all know that the government will introduce GST after the general election because our huge government spending.

Thus, all Malaysian including our government workers too will have to pay higher tax directly and indirectly. Furthermore, corruption is one of our main problem for budget deficit. As long as UMNO continue governing, the government or PM will not work on curbing corruption.


Malaysian said...

Maybe we too should be selfish. We know something is wrong with the government yet can't do anything about it. We know the government is giving foreigners citizenship so they can remain in power. Thus, my advise to fellow Malaysian to be selfish and get out of this country while you can. Sick and tired for nothing much we can do to help this country. So ... get out now while you can.

Below is eye witness of possible citizenship registration by PAS: