Saturday, December 24, 2011


Someone had just posed me this question – Will Anwar Ibrahim be incarcerated? My instantaneous response to him was that, “I am not the judge, and even if I were the judge, I will not give you the answer”. That’s the oft-question ask when the name of Anwar Ibrahim is toyed with in coffee shop conversation nowadays, and the court’s decision on Anwar Ibrahim will be known in a few days i.e. reportedly on Monday 9th January 2012.

The story goes that Anwar Ibrahim stands a hopeless chance at getting an acquittal, if we were to base it on an earlier trial of about a similar offence in 1998. PKR has to brace itself for the worst case scenario where a leadership vacuum in the party will occur if Anwar Ibrahim is found guilty and is sentence to a jail term. I think that leadership vacuum will also be felt in the PR, but how this will affect the coalition’s chances in the upcoming elections is difficult to predict.

There have also been numerous assessments citing the possibility of PR winning the elections i.e. with or without Anwar Ibrahim. Some believe that Anwar Ibrahim isn’t a critical factor in winning the elections anymore, and neither is there the ‘sympathy factor’ that impacted upon PR successes in the 2008 general elections. What are more important now are issues and exposures affecting UMNO/BN today that are most likely to weaken BN’s reputation in the run up to the elections. And issues and exposures detailing UMNO/BN 50 odd years of wrong doing are slowly emerging. Even former PM Tun Dr. Mahathir 20 odd years of rule is not spared of public debate and criticism.

Even if Anwar Ibrahim were to be acquitted and assumes the premiership (should PR win the election), at best he would only last one term as he would breach his 70th birthday at the end of that term. It is for this reason that I think, PR should start developing and identifying a second tier leaders that are reasonably young capable (free of all the worldly vices) of taking over the leadership, so that when a leadership change does occur, the transition would be smooth. I believe the PR leadership today is not devoid of young and able leaders that are not seen to have been infected or to have been influence by the ‘evils and vices of politics’. This is simply because they all have not savored political power, but once in power I certainly am not ruling out the chances of them emulating the inherent adverse qualities of the present UMNO/BN leadership. This will be the biggest challenge for the PR leadership.

So with the uncertain future of Anwar Ibrahim, the PR leadership now has a daunting task at hand to decide upon a ‘replacement’ for Anwar Ibrahim. That replacement has to be decided and made known now so that there will be a clear transition in the change of leadership, should Anwar Ibrahim be incarcerated and the PR wins the election. As of now, that replacement isn’t quite certain and PR cannot place their bet on Anwar Ibrahim getting an acquittal. PR has to start working on the worst case scenario now.



exrmafazhar said...

Sorry Dato, just a little correction, its Anwar not Anuar. I see that Malaysia Today has done that correction for you. Anyway, will Anwar be incarcerated? That a million dollar question lah.... err maybe later in the evening will just drop by at Central Market and ask Master Chin for his comments......

tahaneverest02 said...

The people should take stock of themselves now as GE13 is drawing near.Anwar Ibrahim should not be the deciding factor as to change in Govt. The change should arise from the awareness of the gross wrong-doings of the UMNO/BN Govt especially in corruption, mismanagement and wastage of people's money.The focus of change should be based on such factors so that the new Govt when taking over will make no mistake in tackling such urgent matters. Personally, I think that AI is a 'goner' and UMNO just cannot and will not tolerate having him around esp in the coming GE13. He is the ' pain in the ass ' for UMNO. So UMNO has no choice but to use Sodomy II to get rid of him. This way it looks good in the eyes of kampong folks.

bruno said...

Dato,first of all the Umno GOM make a foolish blunder.With all their highly overpaid so called political strategists,they miscalculated that PR without Anwar Abrahim is like a dinosaur without backbones.That the coalition with just fall apart.

So they went all out to get Anwar convicted on a second sodomy charge.Whether Anwar will be found innocent or guilty will be irrelevant to the cause of PR and the rakyat,whose first piority is to get rid of the corrupted useless good for nothing Umno/BN.

My personal opinion is that for PR to land a knockout blow that will send Umno/BN down for the count will be Anwar in prison and Nurul Izzah to helm PKR and PR.Not Azmin Ali,Anwar's blue eyed boy or any seasoned politician from PAS or DAP.The seasoned politician can be her deputy as they all have their plus and minuses.

Nurul's age should not be taken as a liability to her,as she will be widely accepted by the people.The public's perception of Nurul will be better than Anwar's,Azmin and the others.If we were to take a poll,I am pretty sure Nurul will be way ahead of the pack.

Umno/BN and critics might argue that she is too young and inexperienced to be PM.If age were to be the deciding factor in choosing a leader,then we are way off our mark.Just look at the average age of our present and past PM and cabinet ministers.And where has it got us to.To be the most corrupted government in our region and on the brink to bankruptcy.

Mohd Arshad Raji said...

Dear Exrmafazhar,

Thanks. Dah amend.

Mej. A R Ramachandran (Retired) said...

The real question is, whether Malaysia is ready for a FEMALE PRIME MINISTER. Ladies, go for it. I think its about time.

Rauf Hakim said...

Anwar will go in that's definite otherwise UMNO would not have started it for the second time.Aquittal for Anwar would certainly enrage Dr.M and no one not even Najib could survive his wrath.ABU or 'All But Anwar' mass movement will catapult Wan Azizah as the savior and the new leader of the people.GE 13 will follow immediately after the conviction.UMNO-BN will be hammered by the angry rakyat without quarters.Then Wan Azizah as the new PM will set up a Royal Inquiry on political trial of Anwar and Anwar will be released just like Ardogan the current PM of Turkey.So both way UMNO is going to kaput.People hate UMNO in the image of Penyamun Tarbush more than they love Anwar as the iconic leader of Pakatan.

abdulhalimshah said...

Dear Dato' Arshad,
Regardless as who is going to helm the political future of Malaysia after the next GE, the critical issue to deal with is how the Nation shall emerge as what our founding fathers envisaged for the people in the next century. We must be able to fulfill the dream of becoming a developed country not just materially but spiritually. Our Nation is not free unless we allow the people to express and exercise the basic fundamental liberties of a civilised country in this millennium. As long we have our people being shackled by the mind trap that positive change is disastrous, then we will end up like the dinosaurs, ie. becoming extinct jurassic animals.

LaM said...

Some and if not most malays are just plain stupid. Mahathir exploited to the hilt the stupidity of the malays and proclaim himself as the most feared PM. The truth is only the stupid malays fear mahathir and these are the stupid and coward malays whom Mahthir put to helm most of the important civil and military instituiona. Even in the appointment of judges, mahathir recommended for appointment stupid and coward malays which he could dictate. That is the reason why Mahathir could hold the balls of the IGP, Chief Judge, AG and othr top malay public service officers during his time. The guilty verdict and the sentencing of Anwar in Sodomy 1 were decided by Mahathir himself. Don't believe..go and ask the ex-Chief Judge Eusoffe Chin and the ex-AG who is now 6ft underground, who were both subservient to mahathir.

Whether Anwar is found guilty or not is no longer important but a guilty verdict will show the depraving standard, integrity and behavior of malay judges. They are afraid of ghosts. Ever wondered why the put a malay judge and not an indian judge to hear the case. Most indian jugdges were so embarrassed with the late Agustine 'irrelevant' Paul that there is a conscious effort to eradicate the negative image perpetuated by Agustine.

Malay judges...they see who buttered their bread. Justice is secondary..lah.
Sodomy 2 case would have been thrown out long ago if it is heard by a judicially competent and independent judge who would not succumb to pressure. Claimed to be forcefuly screwed but later seen going to accused house having tea and only report alleged incident 2 days later.
There is one good malay judge who is judicially independent minded and he is Hishamuddin. But as usual promotion...vely slow lah. The rest can be told...lah.

maurice said...

Whether he is incarcerated or not is not the issue.DSAI cannot be a good prime minister because he has too many personal problems that he is unable to solve.He has to learn how to chew his food slowly.No doubt he is a good orator tetapi 'cakap tak serupa bikin'.He is cunning as a fox, create problems for his benefit but eventually caught in the net.

eli said...

BOTTOM LINE...with or without Anwar, ABU must prevails.

bat8 said...


Saya telah membaca satu artikel FMT yang bejudul " How EC in Cohoot With BN". Setelah membacanya timbul fikiran bahawa DSAI ada kemungkinan dibebaskan.

2. Saya berfikiran demikian kerana jika BN boleh merubah daftar pemilih sebagaimana artikel tersebut disamping penipuan-penipuan lain, kemenangan BN tidak lagi bergantung kepada faktor memenjarakan DSAI. DSAI walaupun bebas untuk memimpin Pakatan didalam PRU13 ini, beliau tidak berupaya untuk merubah kemenangan BN nanti.

Keputusan kes Khir Toyo tidak ada kaitan dengan keputusan DSAI pada 9 Januari nanti. Malah ia akan digunakan untuk dijadikan bukti/modal kempen yang sistem kehakiman kita dah pulih.


kampong lad said...

1)mungkinkah apa yg berlaku di filipina dimana ninoy aquino 'dinafikan' jawatan presiden dan sebaliknya 'diberi' kpd balunya corazon (sekarang anak mereka ) akan terjadi disini? tetapi bolehkah wan azizah bertanding kerusi parlimen lagi setelah meletak jawatan utk memberi ruang kpd suminya? 2) "but once in power I certainly am not ruling out the chances of them emulating the inherent adverse qualities of the present UMNO/BN leadership".i believe many are sharing your concern and for this i would like to quote "kalau nak tengok seseorang itu baik atau tidak, bagi dia kuasa" wassalam

mycuntree said...

I think Malaysians must be realistic that a PR GOM will not ever be the panacea to all that is woefully wrong with our politics and governance. A significant number of top guns, especially from PKR are ex-UMNO and there is no reason to believe that the basic UMNO's DNA left them when they left UMNO.They just happened to from the wrong camp before they left UMNO.

PR is admittedly a mix & match coalition of some common interests and a wide variety of opposites. So lets be prepared for a horrid time when they do get to be the GOM.

The more important mission of Malaysians should be to focus on the ejection of the UMNO/BN regime from the seats of power, for obvious reasons. And at this point in time there is really no other option other than PR.

For to expect any positive change to take place in the way of governance by the GOM is to remove the cause of all its ills first.

The rest we will resolve to solve after that!


Teruna Bugis said...

Dato Jeneral,

PRU 13 adalah ketika yang sepatutnya diambil kesempatan untuk mereka yang cintakan keadilan bertindak. UMNO mesti diajar supaya lebih bertanggungjawap. PR mesti mengambil alih pemerintahan dari BN/UMNO. Anwar hanyalah mangkin pada perubahan tersebut. ABU mesti dijayakan.

komando said...

We do not worry who the person is!
Humans are not indispensible!
We will all go when the time comes!
Humans do not decide!

Change is more important!
The good will triumph OVER EVIL and the DEVIL!

For those who think they can cheat, rule and 'con' forever never read history!

They are the real losers!

SSrahman said...


With or without anwar i will just vote ABU ABU ABU !